Facts, Trends, Opportunities
The latest shifts in the global art market show a striking reality: collectors currently hold the stronger hand, particularly in private transactions. Below is a structured overview of the key developments shaping this dynamic moment.
Auctions lose ground – private sales gain traction
Auction decline
In 2024, the global art and antiques market contracted by 12% to USD 57.5 billion, even as overall transaction numbers rose by 3%. This indicates a clear reallocation towards lower-value segments.
(ref.TS2 Space, Barron’s)
High-value works were hit hardest: sales above USD 10 million dropped by 39% in volume and 45% in value – the steepest fall across all categories.
(ref. Art Basel, Attic Capital, PWM Merrill Lynch)
Private sales on the rise
By contrast, private transactions are surging. Sotheby’s reported a 17% increase in private sales, reaching USD 1.4 billion, while Christie’s jumped by 41% to USD 1.5 billion.
(ref. Artnet News, Scribd)
Art Basel and UBS confirmed this broader trend, reporting a 14% rise to USD 4.4 billion in private sales overall.
(ref. Art Basel, ArtDependence
Takeaway: Private sales now offer greater flexibility, discretion, and often better terms than public auctions – a clear shift in power dynamics.
Pricing gaps: buyers vs. sellers
A persistent misalignment remains. Sellers often cling to peak valuations from 2021–22, while buyers negotiate firmly against 2024–25 benchmarks.
This has created typical negotiation spreads of 10–25% for blue-chip works, with discounts of up to 50% in cases of distressed sales.
Market polarisation: stability versus speculation
Icons remain strong
Warhol, Monet, and Picasso continue to hold steady, attracting demand and retaining market confidence even in a subdued climate.
Speculative contemporary art collapses
By contrast, speculative ultra-contemporary segments have faltered, with oversupply and fading hype hitting many younger names. Selective opportunities remain in established Old Masters – figures such as Artemisia Gentileschi have attracted renewed attention.
(ref. UBS, Observer)
Better informed collectors – yet transparency remains elusive
According to Art Basel & UBS, 44% of collectors now describe themselves as “researchers”, up from 37% in 2021.
Still, the market is widely perceived as opaque: only 5% of collectors consider it fully transparent.
Source: MoneyWeek
Budgeting remains another barrier: 78% of collectors admit they have postponed purchases due to misjudged costs or affordability concerns.
Macroeconomic factors: art as a safe haven
Despite inflationary pressure, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, wealthy buyers remain resilient. Art continues to be valued as a stable store of wealth and a superior portfolio diversifier compared to equities.
Collectors take the lead
The art market of 2025 places collectors - both as sellers and buyers - firmly in pole position. Private sales have not only outpaced auctions but have also redefined the mechanisms of negotiation, discretion, and deal-making.
For buyers, this environment offers unusual leverage – provided they combine market knowledge with due diligence on provenance and quality. For sellers, adapting to realistic price levels and greater transparency will be essential to re-engage this increasingly cautious, research-driven collector base. (based on: ArtExpert | network Archives)