Facts, Trends, Opportunities
The latest shifts in the global art market show a striking reality: collectors currently hold the stronger hand, particularly in private transactions.
Below is a structured overview of the key developments shaping this dynamic moment.
Auctions lose ground – private sales gain traction
Auction decline
In 2024-2025, the global art and antiques market contracted by 12% to USD 57.5 billion, even as overall transaction numbers rose by 3%.
This indicates a clear reallocation towards lower-value segments.
High-value works were hit hardest: sales above USD 10 million dropped by 39% in volume and 45% in value – the steepest fall across all categories
Private sales on the rise
By contrast, private transactions are surging. Sotheby’s reported a 17% increase in private sales, reaching USD 1.4 billion, while Christie’s jumped by 41% to USD 1.5 billion
Artnet News, Scribd
Art Basel and UBS confirmed this broader trend, reporting a 14% rise to USD 4.4 billion in private sales overall.
Takeaway: Private sales now offer greater flexibility, discretion, and often better terms than public auctions – a clear shift in power dynamics.
Pricing gaps: buyers vs. sellers
A persistent misalignment remains. Sellers often cling to peak valuations from 2021–22, while buyers negotiate firmly against 2024–25 benchmarks.
This has created typical negotiation spreads of 10–25% for blue-chip works, with discounts of up to 50% in cases of distressed sales.
Market polarisation: stability versus speculation
Icons remain strong
Warhol, Monet, and Picasso continue to hold steady, attracting demand and retaining market confidence even in a subdued climate.
Speculative contemporary art collapses
By contrast, speculative ultra-contemporary segments have faltered, with oversupply and fading hype hitting many younger names. Selective opportunities remain in established Old Masters – figures such as Artemisia Gentileschi or Canaletto have attracted renewed attention.
Better informed collectors – yet transparency remains elusive
According to Art Basel & UBS, 44% of collectors now describe themselves as “researchers”, up from 37% in 2021.
Still, the market is widely perceived as opaque: only 5% of collectors consider it fully transparent
Budgeting remains another barrier: 78% of collectors admit they have postponed purchases due to misjudged costs or affordability concerns.
Macroeconomic factors: art as a safe haven
Despite inflationary pressure, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, wealthy buyers remain resilient. Art continues to be valued as a stable store of wealth
and a superior portfolio diversifier compared to equities.
Collectors take the lead
The art market of 2025 places collectors - both as sellers and buyers - firmly in pole position. Private sales have not only outpaced auctions but have also redefined the mechanisms of negotiation, discretion, and deal-making.
For buyers, this environment offers unusual leverage – provided they combine market knowledge with due diligence on provenance and quality.
For sellers, adapting to realistic price levels and greater transparency will be essential to re-engage this increasingly cautious, research-driven collector base.
Well-informed collectors – but professional advice remains essential
More and more collectors are devoting time to their own research. According to the Art Basel & UBS Report 2025, 44% now describe themselves as “researchers” – a marked increase compared to 37% in 2021. Yet the lack of transparency continues to unsettle many: only 5% consider the art market to be fully transparent.
Budgeting remains another source of uncertainty: 78% of collectors admitted to postponing acquisitions because of misjudged costs.
This shows that initiative alone is not enough.
Sound, professional advice remains indispensable when it comes to buying or selling. What is required is up-to-date market knowledge, a long-term perspective on price developments, strong networks and art-historical expertise.
One of the most persistent mistakes is that, while experts are consulted in almost every other field, in the art market people too often rely on superficial knowledge picked up from glossy magazines or blogs. Particularly for high-value transactions, independent expertise - as offered by ArtExpert | network - should be seen as standard practice. They are able to advise on placing fresh-to-market artworks, whether for sale or acquisition
Engaging with seasoned specialists not only protects against losses and misjudgements but also helps to shape well-founded strategies for building, managing, or selling a collection.
Adjusted Conclusion
The current market environment offers buyers an exceptional position of strength, especially in private transactions where flexibility and discretion dominate. Negotiations can yield substantial discounts – but the true value of a work is never defined by price alone.
Trust and professional judgement are crucial. Works with impeccable provenance and historical weight demand more than a quick comparison of figures; they call for informed advice and careful evaluation. Engaging with experts ensures that collectors not only safeguard their assets but also act with foresight in a market where information is unevenly distributed.
Ultimately, the art market mirrors wider economic conditions: while uncertainty drives many towards safe havens, it is often the counter-cyclical, well-advised collector who benefits most. The rise of private sales underlines this shift. In an era where transparency is scarce, those who combine independent research with trusted professional guidance will find themselves not only in a position of security – but also of opportunity.
(Facts based on: ArtExpert | network Archives and TS2 Space,MoneyWeek, Barron’s, Observer, Art Basel, Attic Capital, PWM Merrill Lynch, UBS, Observer, ArtDependence)
See also:
Results of "The Art Business Conference" London 2025
Wed, 10 Sep 2025 09:00 - 18:00 BST
For all those involved in buying, selling or caring for art, whether as a gallery owner, operations director, art advisor, studio manager, foundation, private collector, auctioneer, wealth manager or museum professional, the conference try to cover the key aspects of running an art business or collection.